As we continue our Roster Rundown before Spring Training, we move to 1b and Carlos Pena. Pena, who might be GM Andrew Friedmans best acquisition since Stuart Sternberg took over the team  is looking to bounce back from a year where he was productive but with much room to improve.

While Pena showed last season that he is still a premier power threat in the AL East, no easy task, he also showed that he is a liability if he isn’t hitting HR or 2b’s.  He’s pretty much an all or nothing proposition behind the plate, and while that has it’s advantages, he either is going to have to walk a little more, strikeout a little less or just hit the ball a smidge better in 2010 to truly maximize his power skills.  He struck out a staggering 163 times in 2009. While it isn’t even the K’s that bother me, its the reduction in his hits that truly irks me.  His .AVG dropped from .282 in 2007, to .247 in 2008 and .227 in 2009.  That is a drop of .055.  That equates to about 30 hits per season, which is an extra hit every 4th game or so.

This is a big season for Pena and the Rays. He is a free agent at the end of the year, and if the Rays get off to a slow start, you can guarantee that he will be the first guy that the Rays shop, in order to be able to save enough money to sign Carl Crawford.

Bill James sees Pena’s 2009 as an aberration and sees a .013 point increase in 2010.
AB 530
H 127
2b 27
Hr 36
R 88
RBI 99
BB 93
SO 176
AVG .240

If Pena can put up those kind of numbers, the Rays will be in the thick of the playoff chase.

With Spring Training beginning in about two weeks for most teams, General Managers around the league are doing some last second looks around the Free Agent market and are finding some players that produced quite well in 2009. There are rumors that Andrew Friedman has looked into three of them specifically: Johnny Damon, Jonny Gomes and Orlando Hudson.

Damon – I would personally dislike this move for the Rays. Not only will he probably end up getting 4 to 5 million for two years from a team, he just doesn’t fit our team for multiple reasons. For starters, the Rays have too many OF’s in my mind already. With Carl Crawford and BJ Upton locked into OF spots, and Matt Joyce, Desmond Jennings, and Fernando Perez all with viable chances of becoming a starting OF for the Rays, Damon would seem like an excess type of player. While he had a very good season for the Yanks last year, the majority of his work came at new Yankee Stadium, a park tailor made for Damon. He hit for significantly less power on the road than at home, a difference that translated to a .915 OPS at home, and .795 OPS on the road.

He was also awful hitting at the Trop last season.

Gomes – While Damon would seem like excess because of his salary demands, Gomes will probably end up getting a minor league contract and an invite to Spring Training. Gomes experienced the 2nd best season of his career last year for the Reds, and ended the season with 20 HR and a .879 OPS.

If he were to make the team, as a DH, he would provide the Rays with real good power vs LHP. He also has the heart and fun loving nature, that is always appreciated in any MLB clubhouse. Gomes would be a good, low cost signing by the Rays.

Hudson – While Ben Zobrist would seem to be slotted in at 2b to start the year, and the signing of Hudson would most likely move Zorilla to RF permanently, Hudson is an outstanding veteran defensive IF, who can still use the bat. Signing O-Dog would seem to discount the possibility of Desmond Jennings making the team out of Spring, but this seems like a long shot anyways. More than likely, Matt Joyce or Fernando Perez would be the 4th OF and probably get around 200-300 AB’s with Zorilla still moving around the field and playing some DH.

He doesn’t exactly bring a lot of pop to the table, but can still hit for average and once again, bring a stellar glove to the IF. Him and Jason Bartlett would form one of the best defensive IF’s in the game, bar none. He would be worth 3 to 4 million dollars on a one year deal.

The real surprise for the Rays in 2009, Ben Zobrist not only was a huge contributor for the Rays last season, he played so well he finished 8th in the MVP voting.

Before 2009, Ben Zobrist had averaged a HR for every 31.8 AB’s.  In 2010, he upped that number to 18.5.  That’s a pretty lofty jump for a hitter.  Not only did he jump his power numbers, he was a surprisingly efficient hitter for a guy who had never topped a .253 batting average in the pros.  He was a very good hitter for contact during most of his time in the minors though, so the hitting for average wasn’t as shocking.   Maybe the most impressive part of what Zobrist did last year was that he managed to put up these numbers while playing 2b, RF, SS, LF, CF, 1b, 3b, and DH.  That means he played every position but C.

For 2010, it would seem like Ben Zobrist is going to be penciled in at 2b, the position he played the most games at in 2009. He actually hit much better playing just about every other position in 2009, but with Desmond Jennings, Matt Joyce and Fernando Perez battling for a RF spot, and a seeming lack of any starting caliber 2b, Zobrist should start the year as our starting 2b.

Bill James sees a very similar season to 2009 for Zobrist in 2010
G 153
AB 509
PA 593
H 143
2b 28
3b 5
HR 23
RBI 75
BB 84
SO 93
SB 15
AVG .281

3. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays have graduated a fair amount of talent in recent years but continue to come up with arms, while using their stumble last year to flip Scott Kazmir and add three solid prospects to their system. They could easily graduate three more above-average or better prospects this year if openings arise at the big league level.

Law has Desmond Jennings ranked 6th, Wade Davis ranked 15th, Jeremy Hellickson ranked 17th, Tim Beckham ranked 29th, Matt Sweeney ranked 68th and Matt Moore ranked 81st.

The list is fairly similar to Baseball America’s list for the Rays, except Baseball America likes Hellickson slightly better than Davis.

David should start the season in the rotation. It’s going to take some restraint to keep Hellickson off the big club to start the year, but if there were an injury to any SP I would imagine that Hellickson will be called upon to fill that role.   There is also a possibility that Hellickson gets called up a month or so into the season and is used to augment the bullpen.  A JP Howell, Jeremy Hellickson, Rafael Soriano end of the game would be as good as any in the bigs.

Desmond Jennings is another guy who should be playing for our big club.   He had a fantastic season in Durham (AAA) in 2009.  He hit .325, shows great patience at the plate, a rare skill for someone who  is as fast and steals bases like him, and has more pop than many people think.  He has a chance to be a 5 tool star for the Rays, and his bat and speed would be tough to send back down to Durham.  He should be allowed to keep with Matt Joyce for the 3rd OF spot in 2010.

Moore, Sweeney and Beckham won’t see the show for quite some time.

The Rays enter the 2010 season with one of the best IF’s in MLB.  SS Jason Bartlett is one of the reasons why.

He followed up a Team MVP 2008 season with a markedly better 2009.  He was named to his first All Star team in 09 as well.

He finished 7th in the AL in Avg., 8th in the 80 in SB’s and was 10th in the AL in Triples.

After moving to leadoff last year and replacing BJ Upton, Jason Bartlett showed why he was an All Star and one of the best leadoff men in baseball.

Bill James sees a major drop in production for JB in 2010 bases mainly on the fact that his 2009 season was an anomaly when looking at his career trends.
AB 520
PA 588
H 157
1b 114
2b 31
3b 4
HR 8
R 82
RBI 54
BB 48
SO 89
SB 24
CS 9
AVG .291

There has been a feeling in Tampa for a few seasons, that CF BJ Upton had no real interest in signing with the Rays long term.  Upton, before playing in the Second Annual BJ Upton Celebrity Golf Classic, might have dispelled those rumors a little bit.

“You know what, I’m definitely all for that,” said Upton prior to tee-off time for the Second Annual B.J. Upton Celebrity Golf Classic Monday at Tampa’s Hunter’s Green Country Club. “I love the city of Tampa and I’d love to be here for an extensive period of time. So if that’s something they want to talk about, I definitely have open ears for it.”

“B.J. is a very important part of this organization and we would like for him to remain so for the foreseeable future,” he said. “While we don’t discuss specifics on contracts or potential contracts, we are, of course, open to exploring a long term deal with B.J., said GM Andrew Friedman.”

My question is what is it going to take to sign BJ to a long term deal?  There is no doubt, he has a skill set that is very Grady Sizemore-esque, but has never fully put together any string of consistency.  His 2008 Playoffs though, showed you what BJ is capable of doing if his mind and heart are in the game.  A lot of people question both that mind and that heart though.

In BJ’s defense, there are a lot of writers and pundits who believe that BJ’s shoulder was much worse than he ever led on, contributing to his awful hitting in 2009.

The Rays are playing a risky game regardless of the stance they take with a long term extension for BJ.  If he has another bad year, his trade value would be awfully low.  If he has a big year, he’s either going to get a raise from his salary this year (either 3 mil or 3.3 mil depending on the outcome of his arbitration hearing) or he’s going to want a hefty guaranteed yearly salary in a multi year deal.  I don’t envy Andrew Friedman when it comes to BJ’s contract situation.  Maybe a 3-4 year 16-20 mil deal would be a perfect balance for both parties.

The Rays most important player, Evan Longoria heads into his 2nd full season, having accumulated just over 1000 AB’s in his 1.75 seasons in the majors.

In both his first two years, the Longoria has been a top 20 MVP candidate.  In his rookie season, he won the Rookie of the Year Award and this past season he won the Silver Slugger and the Gold Glove for 3b.

As mentioned in opening, Longoria is the piece the franchise is truly building around.  When looking at his numbers from the first two seasons, its easy to see why.

Bill James sees an upswing in every single statistical offensive category in 2010.
AB 595
H 171
1b 91
2b 42
HR 37
RBI 120
R 106
BB 73
K 134
SB 9
AVG .287

The most important improvement to me in James predictions is in the K’s department. Longoria’s one weak spot with the bat is that he swings and misses a tad to much. A small decrease in K’s should equate to the extra few RBI and HR’s that James predicts.