Game Recaps – 3/5/2010 vs NY Yanks

This was a much anticipated game for fans of the Rays young pitchers.  Both David Price and Jeremy Hellickson took the mound for the Rays, and neither disappointed.  Price struck out 2 in 1.2 innings, giving up 2 hits, and 0 runs.  Hellickson gave up 1 hit in 1.1 innings, while striking out two and walking none.

Sean Rodriguez continued his torrid streak, going one single short of the cycle, in 3 ABs.  It was Rodriguez’s 3rd home run in as many games, and Sean is vying hard for the starting 2b job.

Game Recaps – 3/6/2010 vs Boston Red Sox

Justin Ruggiano hit  walk off HR in the 9th to win the game for the Rays, it was Ruggiano’s only AB for the game.  Young speedster Fernando Perez had 1 hit in 1 ab.

Andy Sonnanstine started the game, and struggled just as he did in 2009.  He pitched 1 inning, and gave up 1 H, 2 ER, and 3 BB.  Wade Davis came into the game and pitched 1.2 innings, and had 3 BB as well.

Game Recaps – 3/7/2010 vs Philadelphia Phillies

Jake McGee pitched for the first time this spring, pitching 1.1 innings, and striking out 2 batters while giving up 1 H. James Shields started the game for the Rays, and struggled a little with  his command, but pitched 2.2 innings, 3 H, and 2 BB.

Young stud Desmond Jennings had 2 Hits and 1 R in 2 AB.  Justin Ruggiano continued to hit the ball well going 1 for 2.  Tim Beckham had an RBI and a hit in his 2 AB’s.  Another young potential started for the Rays, Reid Brignac continued to hit well (.600 AVG), going 2 for 3.

The main piece in the trade that sent Scott Kazmir to the Anaheim Angels, Sean Rodriguez, started off the Spring season with a HR in the Rays first game.  He then proceeded to follow up that first HR with another in the Rays 2nd game, a 6-5 win against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Rays put some more bats on the ball yesterday, with Matt Joyce driving in the winning run in the 9th inning.  Joyce, Ruggiano, Longoria, Patt Burell, Rodriguez, Elliot Johnson and Reid Brignac all had one in the game.

Jeff Niemann looked great in his first spring start.  He worked 2 IP, and gave up one hit for a HR.  The bullpen was awful as Balfour, Lance Cormier, and Alexander Torres all allowed at least 1 ER.

If Sean Rodriguez can show the Rays that he can handle the 2b duties (he had an error yesterday) and can rake like the Rays imagined he would, there is a possibility that he could be the opening day starter at 2B and Ben Zobrist would move to RF.  This would further complicate the OF glut that we currently have, but might give us our best lineup.  Joyce and Rodriguez are essentially battling for one starting position more than likely, even though they play different spots on the field.

The Rays lost their first Spring game yesterday against the Baltimore Orioles, 12-2.  As we all know, Spring stats and scores have to be taken with a grain of salt and a more careful examination of the box scores.

James Shields and Matt Garza combined for 3 IP, and 2k, 2bb and 1 ER.  Garza gave up a HR to Josh Bell that accounted for that ER.

As far as the hitters are concerned, we didn’t really put the bat on the ball too much. Sean Rodriguez did drop a bomb in the 7th inning.  Reid Brignac, Navi, and Kelly Shoppach all had one hit.

With players trickling into camp Sunday and this morning I figured it was time to do my Annual Roster Predictions that I do for every one of our Tampa teams before the season begins.  There will be some real competition this year at multiple positions, namely backup IF, DH, SP and OF.

Without further ado…

Starting Rotation:
James Shields
Matt Garza
Jeff Niemann
David Price
Wade Davis

Middle Relief:
Grant Balfour
Lance Cormier
Randy Choate
JP Howell
Dan Wheeler

Closer:
Rafael Soriano

C:
Kelly Shoppach
Dioner Navarro

Infielders:
Carlos Pena
Ben Zobrist
Jason Bartlett
Evan Longoria
Sean Rodriguez
Reid Brignac

Outfielders:
Carl Crawford
Matt Joyce
BJ Upton
Gabe Kapler

DH:
Pat Burell
Willy Aybar

Most notably, that leaves, Andy Sonnastine, Jeremy Hellickson and Desmond Jennings off of the Rays Opening Day Roster.  I would almost gaurantee you see Hellickson and Jennings up at some point before the All Star Break, especially Hellickson at the first sign of an injury to one of our starting arms.  The situation with Jennings will be a little more tenuous as based on this roster, we have 4 OF’s already, with Zobrist being able to move to the OF with having both Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez available to backup all the IF spots.  Sonnastine could also find his way onto the roster in place of a Randy Choate if Choate were to struggle.

With pitchers and catchers reporting in just a few days, I thought it was time to take take a peek at the Rays potential Starting Rotation, by the numbers.

I would hypothesize that this rotation is pretty much set in stone barring one potential change.  If David Price does not show some development on a third pitch, and Jeremy Hellickson continues to progress at his current rate, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Price move into the pen ala our World Series Run, and have Hellickson get a crack at the rotation.  He has 4 pitches, and shows much better command of those pitches, than Price has shown thusfar.

Without further ado…

James Shields

Matt Garza

Jeff Niemann

David Price

Wade Davis

Buster Olney wrote an article this morning naming the five best rotations in baseball.  While the Rays weren’t in the top 5, they were around 9th depending on how you interpret his Others in the conversation list.

The first two choices, the Sox and the Yanks are hard to argue with.  The Sox took a rotation that already had Josh Beckett, Jon Lester (my favorite pitcher in the AL), Dice K, Clay Bucholz and Tim Wakefield and added John Lackey.  Barring injury, the deepest group 1-6.  Another rotation that had a great 2009, only got stronger in 2010 as well in the New York Yankees.  Add Javier Vasquez to CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte and either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes and you have the makings of another nasty 1-6.

3-5 is where I start to have a problem with Olney’s rankings.

White Sox – John Danks, Gavin Floyd and Freddy Garcia isn’t exactly the backend of the rotation that is striking fear in hitters. Danks and Floyd are both young, but both seem like 4.00 ERA guys to me with 10-12 wins in their system. Jake Peavy and Mark Buehrle are beasts, but they are more like  Top 10 worthy, not number 3.

Angels – Without Lackey, this is not the same rotation to me. Joe Saunders is solid but Joel Pineiro should fall off once out of the tutelage of Dave Duncan, and Scott Kazmir has yet to put together a consistent season.  I like this rotation, but not better than the Phillies, Giants or Rays.

Cardinals – Cardinals can probably sit in top 5, because they have arguably two of the 5 best pitchers in the NL in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. Kyle Loshe, Brad Penny and some other joker at the 5 spot is shaky at best, but once again, they have two of the best in the NL.

My number 3 would have been the Phillies.  With Roy Halladay, Cole Hamels, JA Happ, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton, they bring all different kinds of stuff at you.  If Happ can improve, and Halladay dominates the NL even moreso than he dominated the AL (he will) this is the best team in the NL and the best staff as well.

My fourth spot goes to the Giants, with a chance for them to be as good as any staff in the league.  Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, just like the Cardinals are as good as any 1, 2 in the NL.  Round them out with Barry Zito who had a rejuvenated 2009 and Jonathan Sanchez who is a strikeout machine and the potential dominance that many predict for Madison Bumgarner and you have the chance for a lethal rotation.  Once again, if Zito has a 2010 like his 2009 second half, and Bumgarner is as good as advertised, this might be the best rotation in the game.

I will leave the Cards at 5 because of their 1, 2.

The Rays have a chance to be in this top 5 by the end of the season though.  James Shields, Matt Garza, David Price, Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis and potentially Jeremy Hellickson is as good as a young rotation as there has been in baseball in ages.  The key to the Rays ending with a top 5 caliber rotation is the development of Garza, Davis and Price.  Price regressed in 2009 and will need to show a 3rd pitch to avoid ending up in bullpen. Hellicksons’ stuff is too nasty to be left out of the rotation for very long.

As we continue our Roster Rundown before Spring Training, we move to 1b and Carlos Pena. Pena, who might be GM Andrew Friedmans best acquisition since Stuart Sternberg took over the team  is looking to bounce back from a year where he was productive but with much room to improve.

While Pena showed last season that he is still a premier power threat in the AL East, no easy task, he also showed that he is a liability if he isn’t hitting HR or 2b’s.  He’s pretty much an all or nothing proposition behind the plate, and while that has it’s advantages, he either is going to have to walk a little more, strikeout a little less or just hit the ball a smidge better in 2010 to truly maximize his power skills.  He struck out a staggering 163 times in 2009. While it isn’t even the K’s that bother me, its the reduction in his hits that truly irks me.  His .AVG dropped from .282 in 2007, to .247 in 2008 and .227 in 2009.  That is a drop of .055.  That equates to about 30 hits per season, which is an extra hit every 4th game or so.

This is a big season for Pena and the Rays. He is a free agent at the end of the year, and if the Rays get off to a slow start, you can guarantee that he will be the first guy that the Rays shop, in order to be able to save enough money to sign Carl Crawford.

Bill James sees Pena’s 2009 as an aberration and sees a .013 point increase in 2010.
AB 530
H 127
2b 27
Hr 36
R 88
RBI 99
BB 93
SO 176
AVG .240

If Pena can put up those kind of numbers, the Rays will be in the thick of the playoff chase.